国家自然科学基金(61773412,61903385,6177020844)
[1] Lekone P E, Finkenstädt B F. Statistical inference in a stochastic epidemic SEIR model with control intervention: Ebola as a case study. Biometrics, 2006, 62: 1170-1177 CrossRef Google Scholar
[2] Xie J R, Meng F H, Huang Y W, et al. Optimal devoted resource strategies to epidemic extinction by increasing recovery rate. Intl J Mod Phys C, 2019, 31: 1–10. Google Scholar
[3] Newman M E J. Spread of epidemic disease on networks. Phys Rev E, 2002, 66: 016128. Google Scholar
[4] Chowell G, Nishiura H. Transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease (EVD): A review. BMC Med, 2014, 12: 196. Google Scholar
[5] Garnett G P. The basic reproductive rate of infection and the course of HIV epidemics. AIDS Pat Care STDs, 1998, 12: 435–449. Google Scholar
[6] Chen X L, Zhou T S, Feng L, et al. Nontrivial resource requirement in the early stage for containment of epidemics. Phys Rev E, 2019, 100: 032310. Google Scholar
[7] Dye C, Gay N. Modeling the SARS epidemic. Science, 2003, 300: 1884–1885. Google Scholar
[8] Watts D J, Strogatz S H. Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’ networks. Nature, 1998, 393: 440. Google Scholar
[9] Barabási A L, Albert R. Emergence of scaling in random networks. Science, 1999, 286: 509–512. Google Scholar
[10] Pastor-Satorras R, Vespignani A. Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks. Phys Rev Lett, 2001, 86: 3200. Google Scholar
[11] Li Q, Guan X H, Wu P, et al. Early transmission dynamics in wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia. N Engl J Med, 2020, 382: 1199–1207. Google Scholar
Figure 1
(Color online) Exponential growth of the number of COVID-19 infections. (a) and (b) Baidu index and Google index of some related keyworks, respectively; (c) predicted and ture accumulated number of confirmed infections in China. Similar curves in China expect Hubei Province and China expect Wuhan city are plotted in (d) and (e), respectively
Figure 2
(Color online) Value of
Figure 3
(Color online) True and predicted values of
Figure 4
(Color online) Predicted numer of COVID-19 infections. The circles are the true values while other symbols are the predicted values. (a) and (b) Predicted values in the whole country except Hubei Province; (c) and (d) predicted values in the whole country except Wuhan city; (e) and (f) predicted values in the Hubei Province except Wuhan city
Figure 5
(Color online) Basic reproduction number
区域 | |||
全国除去湖北 | 0.942 | 0.870 | 0.825 |
全国除去武汉 | 0.935 | 0.870 | 0.831 |
Download PDF
