SCIENTIA SINICA Informationis, Volume 50 , Issue 12 : 1882(2020) https://doi.org/10.1360/SSI-2020-0029

Analysis of COVID-19 spread characteristics and infection numbers based on large-scale structured case data

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  • ReceivedFeb 17, 2020
  • AcceptedMar 20, 2020
  • PublishedMay 7, 2020


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感谢安徽省卫生健康委员会、安徽省共青团、广西省卫生健康委员会、湖南省 卫生健康委员会、江苏省湖南省卫生健康委员会、山东省卫生健康委员会、陕西省卫生健康委 员会、深圳市卫生健康委员会、天津市卫生 健康委员会等提供的匿名病例数据支持, 感谢部分地级市卫生健康委员会对数据确认的支持, 感谢百度出行提供出行大数据支持. 感谢匿名评审专家耐心细致的指导. 特别致敬奋战一线的医务人员和志愿者


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  • Figure 1

    (Color online) The deep learning model to extract patient information including: gender, age and date

  • Figure 2

    (Color online) An example of the structured Covid-19 case details

  • Figure 3

    (Color online) Causes of infection

  • Figure 4

    (Color online) (a) Proportion of infected “travellers to Wuhan"; (b) proportion of infected cases with “Close physical contact with an infector"

  • Figure 5

    (Color online) (a) Gender proportion of patients; (b) comparison of patient age distribution and China's natural popularity distribution

  • Figure 6

    (Color online) (a) Data distribution and fit distribution during the latent period; (b) data distribution and fit distribution of medical consultation delay

  • Figure 7

    (Color online) (a) Data distribution and fit distribution of confirm delay after visiting. (b) Confirm delay reduces with visit dates

  • Figure 8

    (Color online) (a) Data of distribution and fit distribution from infection to confirmation; (b) an overall data estimation based on early samples

  • Figure 9

    (Color online) An overall data estimation based on early samples

  • Figure 10

    (Color online) Infection roadmap for the COVID-19 case occurring at a shopping mall in Baodi District, Tianjin

  • Figure 11

    (Color online) Partial sketch of dynamic Wuhan traveling data (provided by Baidu Travel)

  • Table 1   Samples of anonymous COVID-19 cases from different places
    Province/City Case examples
    Anhui xxx, male, 45 years old, Xiantao City, Hubei Province $\cdots$. When the patient returned to his hometown by car from Hubei on Jan. 10th, he first hung out for 3 hours on Wuhan Hanzheng Street, and then returned to xxx town of Mengcheng on the 11th. He began to cough, mainly dry cough, on the 24th, and transferred to the First People's Hospital of Mengcheng for treatment on the 26th.
    Guangxi xxx, female, 24 years old, xxx from Guilin, is the wife of patient xxx who was confirmed on Feb. 1st. On Jan. 27th, she and xxx returned to Guilin via Wuhan. On the 25th, she showed symptoms such as fever and sputum appeared. On Feb. 1st, she was hospitalized in the Third People's Hospital. On Feb. 4th, she was tested positive $\cdots$.
    Shenzhen 36 years old male patient, resident in Shenzhen Nanshan. He drove to Ezhou, Hubei on January 20th and returned to Shenzhen on the 25th. He began to show symptoms on February 1st and was hospitalized on February 3rd. He is now in a stable condition $\cdots$.

    Algorithm 1 The estimated infected case number in Wuhan based on early confirmed case data

    Require:City B structured cases, date of city A start to export $T_0$, closing date $T_{\rm~end}$, left popularity $N_{\rm~A}$ in city A, daily net outflow population $N_F$, proportion popularity $\alpha_T$ export to city $B$, the growth rate of infection cases $b$, Gaussian distribution $~\mu~$ and $~\delta~$ from infection to confirm, the predicted time $T_p$;

    Output:Infection rate $P_{\rm~A}$, infection quantity $N_{\rm~ga}$ of City $A$;

    Current date $T~\leftarrow~T_0$, max confirm delay $\triangle~T~\leftarrow~20$ day, current infection quantity $N_0$, current net outflow population $N_{F0}$;

    while $~T~<=~T_{\rm~end}$ do

    Outflow cases $C~\leftarrow~0$;

    for $T_i=T$ to $T+\triangle~T$

    According to $\mu$, $\delta$ to calculate the probability of $P_{T_i}$ at confirm dates $T_i$;

    Estimate the cases export to the city B with confirmed time $T_i~$,$N_{T_i}=P_{T_i}\times~N_0~\times~\alpha_T~\times~N_{F0}~/~N_{\rm~A}~$;

    Update confirmed cases in date $T_i$ according to $N_{T_i}$;

    Update outflow cases $C~\mathrel{+}=~N_{T_i}$;

    end for

    Update infection cases in city A: $N_0~=~(1+b)~\times~N_0-C$;

    Update population in city A: $N_{\rm~A}~\mathrel{-}=~N_{F0}$;

    end while

    Calculate the probability $P$ according to the distribution of the confirmed cases;

    Calculate $N_~{\rm~gb}$ and $P_{\rm~B}$ based on $P$ and the structured confirmed cases of city B;

    Calculate $P_{\rm~A}~\leftarrow~P_{\rm~B}$ and $N_{\rm~ga}=N_{\rm~A}\times~P_{\rm~A}$.

  • Table 2   Cases floating from Wuhan to destination cities
    City Floating population rate (%) Floating cases Total cases Cases before Jan. 25th Cases before Jan. 28th
    Hefei 0.4 41 104 9 16
    Fuyang 0.35 59 105 10 19
    Qingdao 0.12 19 43 6 10
    Jinan 0.15 17 39 2 4
    Heze 0.1 10 13 1 6
    Tianjing 0.15 22 79 8 13
    Shenzhen 1.87 261 334 26 61
    Nanning 0.19 17 32 1 6
    Guilin 0.13 22 28 10 15
    Beihai 0.09 28 31 7 13
    Zhumadian 0.66 74 107 6 13
    Taizhou 0.54 76 124 21 39
    Changde 0.33 67 93 10 31
    Huaihua 0.11 17 38 5 10
    Total 5.19 712 1170 122 256
  • Table 3   The estimated the infection rate and infection cases in Wuhan based on data in different cities
    City Infection rate (%)Infection cases Infection rate Infection cases
    ($\times~10^4$)(%, unstructured)($\times~10^4$, unstructured)
    Hefei 0.21 2.23 0.52 5.77
    Fuyang 0.34 3.63 0.60 6.61
    Qingdao 0.32 3.41 0.72 7.85
    Jinan 0.23 2.46 0.52 5.77
    Heze 0.18 1.96 0.26 3.01
    Tianjing 0.29 3.16 1.05 11.42
    Shenzhen 0.28 3.01 0.36 4.04
    Nanning 0.18 1.95 0.34 3.83
    Guilin 0.34 3.64 0.43 4.82
    Beihai 0.62 6.65 0.69 7.56
    Zhumadian 0.22 2.43 0.32 3.69
    Taizhou 0.28 3.04 0.46 5.12
    Changde 0.41 4.36 0.56 6.23
    Huaihua 0.31 3.33 0.69 7.58
    Average 0.30 3.23 0.54 5.95
    Median 0.29 3.16 0.52 5.77