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SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences, Volume 61 , Issue 6 : 778-791(2018) https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-016-9163-3

Regional differences of urbanization in China and itsdriving factors

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  • ReceivedJun 15, 2017
  • AcceptedDec 28, 2017
  • PublishedJan 17, 2018

Abstract


Funded by

the National Science and Technology Support Program(Grant,No.,2014BAL04B01)

National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant,No.,4159084)

National Social Science Fund of China(Grant,No.,14BGL149)


Acknowledgment

This work was supported by the National Science and Technology Support Program (Grant No. 2014BAL04B01), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 4159084) and the National Social Science Fund of China (Grant No. 14BGL149).


References

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  • Figure 1

    Urbanization rate of cities in China (2000 and 2010).

  • Figure 2

    Distribution of urbanization rate of cities in China (2000 and 2010).

  • Figure 3

    Distribution of urbanization speed of cities in China (2000–2010).

  • Figure 4

    Distribution of urbanization speed among cities in China by percentage (2000–2010).

  • Figure 5

    Classification criteria and results of urbanization types.

  • Figure 6

    Spatial distribution of urbanization types in China.

  • Table 1   Indicators of driving factors

    Indicator

    1-Economicfactors

    1-1 Per capita GDP

    1-2 Industry location quotient

    1-3 Urban-rural income ratio

    1-4 Connectivity with other regions

    2-Geographicfactors

    2-1 Time distance to major centers

    2-2 Main road density (highways)

    2-3 Proportion of land with a slope of less than 8%

  • Table 2   Descriptive statistics of variables

    Variable

    Mean

    Std. deviation

    Minimum

    Maximum

    Explained variable (y)

    Type of urbanization

    2.407

    1.115

    1

    4

    Explanatory variable (x)

    Per capita GDP (10000 yuan)

    3.145

    2.294

    0.530

    17.513

    Industry location quotient

    3.154

    3.317

    0.5

    25.337

    Urban-rural income ratio

    2.775

    0.812

    0.626

    5.684

    Connectivity with other regions

    98.73

    166.01

    5.31

    1564.07

    Time distance to major centers

    2.806

    2.376

    0.379

    18.360

    Main road (highways) density (km km−2)

    0.050

    0.056

    5.5×10−5

    0.499

    Proportion of land with a slope of less than 8%

    0.493

    0.304

    0.007

    0.996

  • Table 3   Parameter estimation of the ordered logit model

    Parameter

    Estimate

    OR

    Standard Error

    Wald

    P

    Threshold

    Classification=1

    −1.015

    0.772

    1.73

    0.188

    Classification=2

    0.998

    0.764

    1.705

    0.192

    Classification=3

    2.395

    0.784

    9.33

    0.002***

    Location

    Per capita GDP

    0.689

    1.992

    0.093

    54.443

    0***

    Industry location quotient

    0.163

    1.177

    0.038

    17.938

    0***

    Urban-rural income ratio

    −0.459

    0.632

    0.184

    6.225

    0.013**

    Connectivity with other regions

    0.005

    1.005

    0.009

    0.281

    0.596

    Time distance to major centers

    −0.104

    0.901

    0.058

    3.17

    0.075*

    Main road density

    4.543

    0.011

    3.239

    1.967

    0.161

    Proportion of land with a slope of less than 8%

    −0.469

    0.626

    0.447

    1.101

    0.294

    *** p<0.01; ** p<0.05; * p<0.1. When the log probability of a given value is less than or equal to the value of the coefficient of a given threshold, then the administrative unit was classified to that type. Specifically, when y* of a given administrative unit was less than or equal to −1.015, it was considered to have a low level and low speed of urbanization (type 1); when y* of a given administrative unit was greater than −1.015 and smaller or equal to 0.998, it was considered as having a low level and high speed of urbanization (type 2); when y* of a given administrative unit was greater than 0.998 and smaller or equal to 2.395, it was considered to have a high level and high speed of urbanization (type 3); and when y* of a given administrative unit was greater than 2.395, it was considered as having a high level and low speed of urbanization (type 4).

  • Table 4   Results of model fitting by urbanization type

    Variables

    Parameter

    Estimate

    Standard error

    t

    p

    High level and low speed of urbanization (Adj. R2=0.406)

    Constant

    0.538

    0.062

    8.667

    0.000***

    Per capita GDP

    0.375

    0.076

    4.955

    0.000***

    Industry location quotient

    0.121

    0.057

    2.133

    0.036**

    Urban-rural income ratio

    −0.115

    0.113

    −1.02

    0.311

    Connectivity with other regions

    −0.037

    0.115

    −0.325

    0.746

    Time distance to major centers

    0.076

    0.113

    0.676

    0.501

    Main road density

    0.273

    0.114

    2.395

    0.019**

    Proportion of land with a slope of less than 8%

    −0.091

    0.046

    −1.986

    0.051*

    High level and high speed of urbanization (Adj. R2=0.360)

    Constant

    0.376

    0.095

    3.943

    0.000***

    Per capita GDP

    0.338

    0.117

    2.895

    0.005***

    Industry location quotient

    0.069

    0.081

    0.859

    0.394

    Urban-rural income ratio

    0.135

    0.156

    0.864

    0.391

    Connectivity with other regions

    0.06

    0.087

    0.696

    0.489

    Time distance to major centers

    0.032

    0.135

    0.233

    0.816

    Main road density (highways)

    0.36

    0.126

    2.851

    0.006***

    Proportion of land with a slope of

    less than 8%

    −0.005

    0.044

    −0.125

    0.901

    Low level and high speed of urbanization (Adj. R2=0.590)

    Constant

    0.322

    0.036

    9.014

    0.000***

    Per capita GDP

    0.821

    0.098

    8.378

    0.000***

    Industry location quotient

    0.017

    0.07

    0.242

    0.809

    Urban-rural income ratio

    −0.065

    0.05

    −1.317

    0.191

    Connectivity with other regions

    0.216

    0.107

    2.014

    0.047**

    Time distance to major centers

    −0.063

    0.053

    −1.184

    0.239

    Main road density (highways)

    0.035

    0.101

    0.346

    0.730

    Proportion of land with a slope of less than 8%

    -0.014

    0.019

    −0.733

    0.466

    Low level and low speed of urbanization (Adj. R2=0.708)

    Constant

    0.325

    0.029

    11.032

    0.000***

    Per capita GDP

    0.704

    0.122

    5.768

    0.000***

    Industry location quotient

    0.001

    0.076

    0.01

    0.992

    Urban-rural income ratio

    −0.146

    0.033

    −4.387

    0.000***

    Connectivity with other regions

    −0.033

    0.14

    −0.235

    0.815

    Time distance to major centers

    −0.063

    0.029

    −2.171

    0.033**

    Main road density (highways)

    0.468

    0.127

    3.676

    0.000***

    Proportion of land with a slope of less than 8%

    −0.009

    0.019

    −0.462

    0.646

    *** p<0.01; ** p<0.05; * p<0.1.

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