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SCIENTIA SINICA Terrae, Volume 46 , Issue 12 : 1675-1688(2016) https://doi.org/10.1360/N072015-00465

CMIP5气候模式模拟的1850~2014年全球温度变化的集合经验模态分解

魏萌 ①,②,③, 乔方利 ①,②,③,*
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  • ReceivedMay 12, 2016
  • AcceptedAug 10, 2016
  • PublishedOct 25, 2016

Abstract


Funded by

国家自然科学基金委员会-山东省人民政府联合海洋科学研究中心项目(U1406404)


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  • 图 1

    观测和模拟的年平均GMSTA时间序列()

  • 图 2

    CMIP5气候模式历史实验对1850~2005GMSTA的模拟效果

  • 图 3

    CMIP5模式在RCP4.5情景下对2006~2014GMSTA的预估效果

  • 图 4

    观测和模拟的年平均GMSTA序列的EEMD分解结果和显著性检验.

  • 图 5

    HadCRUT4观测序列的多年代际振荡项(MDV)、趋势项多年代际振荡与趋势项的叠加序列以及原始GMSTA序列

  • 图 6

    观测和模拟的长期趋势及多年代际振荡序列

  • 图 7

    HadCRUT4观测和CMIP5 MMM模拟的趋势项趋势项与多年代际振荡的叠加序列及原始GMSTA序列

  • 表 1   个气候模式的基本信息

    模式序号

    模式名称

    水平网格数

    研发机构和国家

    01

    ACCESS1-0

    145×192

    CSIRO, BOM, 澳大利亚

    02

    ACCESS1-3

    145×192

    CSIRO, BOM, 澳大利亚

    03

    BCC-CSM1-1-m

    160×320

    BCC, 中国

    04

    BCC-CSM1-1

    64×128

    BCC, 中国

    05

    BNU-ESM

    64×128

    BNU, 中国

    06

    CanESM2

    64×128

    CCCMA, 加拿大

    07

    CCSM4

    192×288

    NCAR, 美国

    08

    CESM1-BGC

    192×288

    NSF, DOE, NCAR, 美国

    09

    CESM1-CAM5

    192×288

    NSF, DOE, NCAR, 美国

    10

    CMCC-CM

    240×480

    CMCC, 意大利

    11

    CMCC-CMS

    96×192

    CMCC, 意大利

    12

    CNRM-CM5

    128×256

    CNRM, CERFACS, 法国

    13

    CSIRO-Mk3-6-0

    96×192

    CSIRO, QCCCE, 澳大利亚

    14

    EC-EARTH

    160×320

    ICHEC, 爱尔兰

    15

    FGOALS-g2

    60×128

    IAP, THU, 中国

    16

    FGOALS-s2

    108×128

    IAP, 中国

    17

    FIO-ESM

    64×128

    FIO, 中国

    18

    GISS-E2-H-CC

    90×144

    NASA/GISS, 美国

    19

    GISS-E2-H

    90×144

    NASA/GISS, 美国

    20

    GISS-E2-R-CC

    90×144

    NASA/GISS, 美国

    21

    GISS-E2-R

    90×144

    NASA/GISS, 美国

    22

    INM-CM4

    120×180

    INM, 俄罗斯

    23

    IPSL-CM5A-LR

    96×96

    IPSL, 法国

    24

    IPSL-CM5A-MR

    143×144

    IPSL, 法国

    25

    IPSL-CM5B-LR

    96×96

    IPSL, 法国

    26

    MIROC-ESM-CHEM

    64×128

    JAMSTEC, AORI, NIES, 日本

    27

    MIROC-ESM

    64×128

    JAMSTEC, AORI, NIES, 日本

    28

    MIROC5

    128×256

    AORI, NIES, JAMSTEC, 日本

    29

    MPI-ESM-LR

    96×192

    MPI-M, 德国

    30

    MPI-ESM-MR

    96×192

    MPI-M, 德国

    31

    MRI-CGCM3

    160×320

    MRI, 日本

    32

    NorESM1-M

    96×144

    NCC, 挪威

    33

    NorESM1-ME

    96×144

    NCC, 挪威

  • 表 2   观测和模拟的时间序列不同时段的线性趋势

    线性趋势(℃/decade)

    1850~2014

    1915~2014

    1965~2014

    1990~2014

    2005~2014

    HadCRUT4

    0.0479

    0.0739

    0.1530

    0.1459

    0.0112

    CMIP5 MMM

    0.0593

    0.0925

    0.2056

    0.2793

    0.2216

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