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SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences, Volume 62 , Issue 9 : 1453-1460(2019) https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-018-9323-3

Relationships between climate change, agricultural development and social stability in the Hexi Corridor over the last 2000 years

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  • ReceivedJul 2, 2018
  • AcceptedDec 19, 2018
  • PublishedApr 9, 2019

Abstract


Funded by

the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant,No.,XDA19040101)

the Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant,No.,ZDRW-ZS-2016-6,KGFZD-135-17-009-1)


Acknowledgment

This work was supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA19040101) and the Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. ZDRW-ZS-2016-6 and KGFZD-135-17-009-1).


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  • Figure 1

    Map showing the Hexi Corridor and the dry/wet zones of China.

  • Figure 2

    Climate change, agricultural production and social stability in the Hexi Corridor over the last 2000 years. (a) Temperature departures relative to the mean value (horizontal dotted line) of the 1900–1990 period in Northwest China (Yang et al., 2004); (b) variations in the moisture indices for semi-arid areas of China (Gong and Hameed, 1991); (c) cultivated land area of the Hexi Corridor (Cheng, 2007); (d) frequency of wars in the Hexi Corridor (Editorial Committee of Chinese Military History, 2002); (e) population growth dynamics in the Hexi Corridor (Cheng, 2007); (f) administrative division reform in the Hexi Corridor over the last 2000 years (Zhou et al., 2013; Cheng, 2007).

  • Figure 3

    Simplified pathways for interactions between climate change, agricultural production, regional administrative reform and social stability.

  • Table 1   Pearson’s correlation coefficients for interactions between annual temperature departure, moisture index, war frequency, population growth rate and cultivated land records for the Hexi Corridor

    Variable

    Correlation coefficient

    P value

    Temperature departure (°C)

    0.125

    <0.01

    Moisture index

    0.527

    <0.01

    War frequency

    20-year time interval

    −0.207

    <0.01

    50-year time interval

    −0.243

    >0.05

    Population growth rate

    0.877

    <0.01

    ** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). The time series of population growth rate is in decadal units.

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